Vietha Devia Sagita


It is inevitable that the presidential election in the United States can caused stock market fluctuations both in the United States alone as well as in other countries, for example Indonesia. Using regression method and chow test this study aimed at the effects before and after the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States on November 8, 2016. Using the data series shares the value of DJIA and ICI, this study analyzes the emergence of shock due to the change of president in United Staten share prices at the stock market in Indonesia. Based on the chow test result, the election of Donald Trump can provide a shock effect on ICI as well as DJIA, because the value of 6.917956 F count is larger than the value of 3,93 F table. DJIA positive influence on the value of ICI shares due to the election of Donald Trump is significantly below 5% at 1855.782. Meanwhile, before the election of Donald Trump DJIA has a negative influence on the ICI for - 1407.59. Based on that we can conclude that the election of Donald Trump bring a good impact on the growth of the Indonesian stock market.


DJIA, ICI, Stock Market, American Presidential Election

Full Text:



Achsani, N. A. (2000). Mencermati Kejatuhan Indeks Dow Jones: Akankah Indeks BEJ Ikut Terseret. University of Potsdam. Potsdam.

A CME GROUP COMPANY. “Five Questions About The Dow, That You Always Wanted to Ask”. _Brochure.pdf, 2012, accessed Februari 2, 2017.

___. 2017.” Market Perspective, Wealth Management Newsletter Nov 2016: US Elected Effect”. 16.pdf, 2017, accessed Februari 8, 2017.

___. Stock Market Rebound: Negative Sentiment As a Result of President Election Became Calm”., 2016, accessed Februari 5, 2017.

Ang, R. (1997). Buku Pintar Pasar Modal Indonesia (The Intelligent Guide to Indonesian Capital Market). Jakarta: Mediasoft Indonesia.

Astria, Riendy & Nugroho, Aprianto Cahyo. Stocks Exchange, November 9th index closed down sharply by 1.03., 2016, accessed Februari 8, 2017.

Husnan, S. (2004). Dasar-Dasar Teori Portofolio dan Analisis Investasi. Penerbit UPP-AMP YKPN.

Kosakowski, Paul.” Why The Dow Matters”., 2017, accessed Februari 2, 2017.

Li, X., Qiu, T., Chen, G., Zhong, L. X., and Wu, X. R. (2017). Market impact and structure dynamics of the Chinese stock market based on partial correlation analysis. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 471, 106-113.

Martha. “Trump’s Effect Testing Indonesian Economic”. guji.perekonomian.indonesia, 2017, accessed Februari 5, 2017.

Muharam, Harjum dan Nurafni, Zuraedah. “The Effect Analysis of Exchange Rate and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to Indonesia Composite Index in Jakarta Stock Exchange”., 2008, accessed Februari 5, 2017.

Pramisti, N Qomariyah. “Donald Trump and Stock Market Issues in 2016”. trump-dan-gonjang-ganjing-pasar-saham-2016-cdGU, 2017, accessed Februari 5, 2017. Print Records.”Wall Street, the Dow Jones Emerging 20,000”., 2017, accessed February 8, 2017.

Wagner, Harvey M. "Linear Program-ming Techniques for Regression Analysis," Journal of the American Statistical Associa-tion, LIV (1959), 206-12.



  • There are currently no refbacks.

Comments on this article

View all comments

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.